Consensus Forecasting Group Seeks “Control” Forecast Ahead of Budget Session

With fears of an economic recession diminishing, but with the likelihood of a government shutdown looming members of the Consensus Forecasting Group (CFG) opted for the control weight over an optimistic or pessimistic approach for the General Fund and Road Fund revenues in the upcoming fiscal year.

The current economic outlook is hopeful, according to testimony presented by the Office of the State Budget director on Monday – with little differences between the “control model,” and an “optimistic outlook.”

Greg Harkenrider, the deputy executive director of the Office of State Budget Director, told economists comprising the Consensus Forecasting Group that the control estimates do not take into account a potential government shutdown.

Economists with the Office of State Budget Director also predicted a dip in motor fuels tax in fiscal year 2025 but expect they will rebound in fiscal year 2026.

The forecasting group will meet once more in December with their final fiscal estimates before the 2024 60-day budget-writing legislative session.